Posted By: drmarty
Date: Monday, 25 August 2008, at 11:41 p.m.

KCZ is tough enough to analyze from the charts without worrying about stops or exits....at this point.

First of all, I'd disregard that spike and return last Feb and March. Concentrate on the inner channel. There is a decent trending channel hiding there with a potential for 160 in a 2-3 months. This is based on an extension of trendlines...weekly and monthly.

There is a bias toward the high side in the 30 minute chart; closes tend to be high fulcrum. On the daily chart both stochastics, 14/3, %k and d as well as the MACD Oscillator are bullish with good divergence. But in the very short term, a cycle may be ending and a correction is due. This only confuses the short term trader; no bets for the short term. Intermediate indicators are bearish. Longer term indicators are bullish and this is where I'd put my confidence at this stage of the game. I don't think there will be a change of this technical picture for a couple of weeks so there is time to plan....volume and open interest are healthy in the Dec. Sept has almost closed.

I'll take a look at fundamentals and other analysts' work to see if there is anything extraordinary to impact on the technical picture: it would have to be something big.